Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2012-13


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
16 New Mexico 100.0%   2   29 - 5 13 - 3 29 - 5 13 - 3 +13.8      +5.6 50 +8.2 12 65.8 210 +17.6 6 +17.0 1
24 Colorado St. 99.0%   8   23 - 8 11 - 5 23 - 8 11 - 5 +12.7      +10.5 6 +2.2 110 64.8 231 +12.5 29 +13.1 2
28 San Diego St. 97.3%   8   20 - 10 9 - 7 20 - 10 9 - 7 +12.3      +3.6 80 +8.7 9 68.7 139 +11.2 40 +9.8 5
31 UNLV 100.0%   6   24 - 9 10 - 6 24 - 9 10 - 6 +12.0      +2.8 108 +9.2 7 75.9 31 +12.7 26 +11.5 3
47 Boise St. 75.4%   12   19 - 10 9 - 7 19 - 10 9 - 7 +10.1      +7.7 25 +2.4 107 67.9 159 +10.6 44 +10.1 4
85 Air Force 2.2%   15 - 13 8 - 8 15 - 13 8 - 8 +5.7      +7.7 26 -2.0 233 63.1 266 +7.5 66 +9.1 6
89 Wyoming 0.0%   17 - 13 4 - 12 17 - 13 4 - 12 +5.4      +1.4 139 +4.0 71 56.8 338 +7.2 71 +2.2 8
99 Fresno St. 0.0%   9 - 19 5 - 11 9 - 19 5 - 11 +4.8      -1.7 217 +6.4 32 60.3 307 +2.4 133 +4.2 7
149 Nevada 0.0%   11 - 19 3 - 13 11 - 19 3 - 13 +0.8      +2.1 123 -1.2 206 69.9 116 +1.8 143 +0.8 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
New Mexico 1.0 100.0
Colorado St. 2.0 100.0
San Diego St. 4.0 100.0
UNLV 3.0 100.0
Boise St. 4.0 100.0
Air Force 6.0 100.0
Wyoming 8.0 100.0
Fresno St. 7.0 100.0
Nevada 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico 13 - 3 100.0
Colorado St. 11 - 5 100.0
San Diego St. 9 - 7 100.0
UNLV 10 - 6 100.0
Boise St. 9 - 7 100.0
Air Force 8 - 8 100.0
Wyoming 4 - 12 100.0
Fresno St. 5 - 11 100.0
Nevada 3 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico 100.0% 100.0
Colorado St.
San Diego St.
UNLV
Boise St.
Air Force
Wyoming
Fresno St.
Nevada


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   29.0 53.5 17.2 0.3
Colorado St. 99.0% 0.0% 99.0% 8   0.0 0.3 4.0 16.2 39.2 27.8 9.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 99.0%
San Diego St. 97.3% 0.0% 97.3% 8   0.0 0.8 6.3 28.3 32.3 22.7 6.5 0.4 2.7 97.3%
UNLV 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6   0.1 3.3 31.3 51.5 13.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Boise St. 75.4% 0.0% 75.4% 12   0.0 1.2 5.4 14.7 31.7 22.3 0.1 24.6 75.4%
Air Force 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.3 97.8 2.2%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 88.1% 50.0% 24.7% 10.2% 3.9% 1.4%
Colorado St. 99.0% 0.0% 99.0% 56.4% 20.6% 9.0% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4%
San Diego St. 97.3% 0.4% 97.2% 50.2% 16.2% 7.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
UNLV 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 57.3% 23.7% 8.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Boise St. 75.4% 21.6% 65.0% 25.9% 8.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Air Force 2.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.7 26.1 71.7 1.5
1st Round 100.0% 4.6 1.0 36.4 62.1 0.5
2nd Round 99.2% 2.8 0.8 8.2 29.1 38.6 20.6 2.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 78.9% 1.2 21.1 46.1 26.4 5.7 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 44.4% 0.5 55.6 37.5 6.5 0.4 0.0
Final Four 18.9% 0.2 81.1 18.1 0.8 0.0
Final Game 7.0% 0.1 93.0 6.9 0.1
Champion 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2